Doom Comes Fast And Slow

Todd Moses
April 10, 2024

While oil and almost everything else moves upward, natural gas has fallen below the cost of production.

Inputs that matter: Since February, higher natural gas stocks, combined with a mild winter, have kept the U.S. natural gas benchmark, Henry Hub, below $2.00 per MMBtu.

  • The U.S. is the world's largest LNG exporter.
  • U.S. exports provide European allies with energy as they end their dependence on Russian oil.
  • CNBC reported that The Department of Energy announced a pause on natural gas in January to evaluate the impact of the U.S. LNG boom on the climate.

The opportunity: The White House released, "President Biden has been clear that climate change is the existential threat of our time – and we must act with the urgency it demands to protect the future for generations to come."

  • The United Nations 2030 Agenda includes 17 goals around poverty, equality, and climate that most nations are scrambling to achieve.
  • For example, Canada's carbon price increase officially took effect on April 1, 2024, and is expected to raise gas prices by 350% before 2030.

Zoom in: Full-time work fell by 6,000 in the U.S., while part-time work increased by 691,000, including a 5.2% increase in the number of people needing to take multiple jobs.

  • The Motley Fool warns that we are facing the most significant drop in M2, the amount of spending money in circulation, since the Great Depression.
  • Total debt is up by over $2.5 trillion since 2020.

Between the lines: Several media outlets continue to praise the creation of part-time, low-paying jobs as a stimulus to the economy.

  • The official narrative is the economy looks good, stocks are up, and inflation is low.
  • However, the reality is much different.

Follow the money: The Street believes the U.S. will see $5 per gallon of gasoline by summer.

  • Raw food ingredients such as cocoa and sugar are rapidly rising.
  • If fuel costs continue to increase with the rise of commodities, food prices will rise significantly before the fall.

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Read More

  1. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68667140
  2. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Low-Natural-Gas-Prices-Curb-US-Oil-Production-Gains.html
  3. https://banananomics.co/techs_role_in_m2_contraction
  4. https://banananomics.co/breaking_the_pause_on_lng_exports
  5. https://banananomics.co/critical_geopolitical_trends
  6. https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/research/average-household-debt/